A Control Approach to Guide Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in the Treatment of COVID-19 Disease Using a SEIHRD Dynamical Model
Fernando Pazos
Technology and Administration Department
National University of Avellaneda
Mario Bravo 1460
Avellaneda, Buenos Aires, B1879, Argentina
quini.coppe@gmail.com
Flavia E. Felicioni
Instituto Dan Beninson - CNEA - Universidad Nacional de San Martín
Buenos Aires, Argentina
felicioni@cnea.gov.ar
Abstract
The recent worldwide epidemic of COVID-19 disease, for which there are no medications to cure it and the vaccination is still at an early stage, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the affected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as greatly affects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantified in an ad hoc manner. Control theory offers a worthwhile tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding concrete guidance to policymakers. A simple controller, which generates a control law that is easy to calculate and to implement is proposed. This controller is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used and to some level of noncompliance with the NPIs.
Keywords: COVID-19 disease; SEIR model; nonlinear systems; proportional control
Cite this publication as:
F. Pazos and F. E. Felicioni, “A Control Approach to Guide Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in the Treatment of COVID-19 Disease Using a SEIHRD Dynamical Model,” Complex Systems, 30(3), 2021 pp. 323–346.
https://doi.org/10.25088/ComplexSystems.30.3.323
